The Adaptation Paradox: Local Coping Strategies Undermine Regional Resilience Without Coordination Frameworks
Problem Definition
Communities and nations are adapting to climate change — but in uncoordinated ways that maximize their own resilience at the expense of neighbors. When one region builds a dam to secure water supply, downstream regions lose dry-season flow. When farmers shift to drought-resistant varieties, they deplete groundwater faster.
When coastal cities build seawalls, they accelerate erosion elsewhere. These locally rational adaptations compound into a region-level maladaptation trap, where the aggregate outcome is worse for everyone than if adaptation had been coordinated. Yet the institutions for cross-border and cross-sectoral adaptation coordination barely exist.
Root Causes
Adaptation is funded and planned at national/subnational level without cross-border coordination
Water, agriculture, and energy systems are managed as siloes despite critical interdependencies
Early movers who adapt first gain advantage over late movers, creating a race-to-adapt dynamic
No international framework equivalent to climate mitigation's UNFCCC exists for adaptation
Development finance prioritizes short-term local resilience over long-term regional stability