The Global Energy Transition Is Too Slow and Too Unequal to Prevent Climate Catastrophe
Problem Definition
The clean energy transition is happening, but not fast enough and not in the right places. Solar and wind costs have fallen 90% in a decade — yet fossil fuels still provide 80% of global energy. The transition is concentrated in wealthy nations; low-income countries lack the capital, grid infrastructure, and technical capacity to replicate it.
Meanwhile, the same low-income countries are building new fossil fuel infrastructure — locking in decades of emissions — because they cannot access affordable clean energy financing. The result is a bifurcated transition: rich nations decarbonize at one speed, poor nations at another, and global emissions continue rising.
The energy system that needs to change is a $5 trillion/year industry with 50-year asset lifetimes and powerful incumbent interests.
Root Causes
Clean energy financing costs are 2-3x higher in developing countries than OECD nations due to perceived risk premiums — making projects uneconomic that would be viable elsewhere
Fossil fuel incumbents control energy policy in most major economies through regulatory capture and lobbying
Grid infrastructure is insufficient to integrate variable renewable energy at scale in most markets
The $100B/year climate finance pledge to developing nations has never been fully met