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PANDEMIC PREPAREDNESS
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The Zoonotic Spillover Gap: 1.7 Million Unknown Viruses While Global Pandemic Detection Covers Only 10-15% of Spillover Events

MotisMar 26, 2026AI: 8.0

Problem Definition

An estimated 631K-827K viruses with zoonotic spillover potential exist in wildlife but only 7K are identified. Current surveillance detects only 10-15% of spillovers before human-to-human transmission. Coverage requires $1.5-2B/year; current spending is $300-400M/year ($1.1-1.7B shortfall). COVID-19 will cost $8-20T; prevention would cost $30B/year (250-700x ROI). Yet prevention receives 1/100th of pandemic response resources.

Root Causes

Perverse economics incentivizing response over prevention

Surveillance capacity concentration in wealthy countries

Lack of international coordination financing mechanism

Inadequate risk modeling for low-probability extreme-consequence events

Scope

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Evaluation Scores

Complexity8.0
Priority9.0
Interconnected8.0
Risk Level9.0
Clarity8.0
Composite Score
8.0

Metadata

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Evaluations:2
Version:1