About This Project

Stop treating debris mitigation as a compliance checkbox and start treating it as a priced financial instrument. The mechanism: every satellite license for low Earth orbit requires the operator to post a refundable Orbital Risk Bond, sized to a per-mission risk score derived from ESA's existing Space Environment Health Index methodology -- the same one that already scores object size, orbital lifetime, collision-avoidance capability, passivation, and fragmentation risk into a single number. A high-risk mission (non-maneuverable, long post-mission lifetime, no passivation) posts a large bond. A low-risk mission (short-lived, maneuverable, passivated on schedule) posts a small one. This is not a new tax; it is the same logic as a construction performance bond or a landlord's security deposit, applied to orbital real estate. The bond is held in escrow by the licensing authority (FCC, ESA member state, or equivalent national regulator) for the operational lifetime of the mission plus the compliance deorbit window. If the operator verifiably deorbits or removes the object within the committed window -- confirmed via existing space situational awareness tracking data, which already exists and is simply not currently tied to any financial consequence -- the bond is refunded in full, plus a modest interest return funded by forfeited bonds from non-compliant operators. If the operator fails to deorbit on schedule, the bond is forfeited to a dedicated Active Debris Removal Fund, which contracts directly with active-debris-removal providers (the ClearSpace-1-style missions that currently have no reliable funding pipeline) to remove the specific object or an equivalent-risk object from the same orbital shell. This closes the loop that the current voluntary-pledge system leaves open: it converts 'please deorbit responsibly' into 'you get your money back only if you do,' and it funds the removal industry that everyone agrees needs to exist but nobody currently pays for. Legacy objects already in orbit could be brought in through a retroactive buy-in requirement tied to an operator's next license renewal, so the scheme doesn't just apply to new launches while ignoring the existing debris population.

Timeline